Heading into Saturday’s bye week, Alabama was in a position where a spot in the 12-team playoff was uncertain, even if they finished 10-2. However, after a series of favorable game outcomes – particularly Texas A&M’s loss to South Carolina – did their chances improve?
Not fully.
While Alabama’s path to the playoffs has opened up somewhat, the risk of “bid-stealers” still presents a challenge.
Bid-stealers are familiar in NCAA basketball, where unexpected teams win their conference and take an automatic bid, often pushing another at-large team out of contention. In college football, SMU is currently Alabama’s biggest threat as a potential bid-stealer. SMU’s 8-1 record, paired with Clemson’s loss to Louisville, means the ACC title game could see Miami facing SMU. If SMU defeats Miami, they would automatically qualify for the playoff’s top four, while a one-loss Miami team would likely secure an at-large bid. This scenario could push Alabama out of the playoff field.
Even before considering the ACC schedule, SMU might rank above Alabama come Sunday.
Among ESPN’s 13 reporters, only four included Alabama in their top 12 as the No. 11 or No. 12 seed, with others favoring SMU. ESPN’s Heather Dinich, however, placed Alabama as her No. 12 seed. Meanwhile, updated bowl projections remain split on Alabama’s playoff chances. Brad Crawford of 247 Sports moved Alabama into his playoff projections as an 11-seed, facing Ohio State, while CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm has consistently placed Alabama in the playoffs, moving them up to No. 9 against Penn State. ESPN’s experts are divided, with Mark Schlabach leaving Alabama out and sending them to the Citrus Bowl, while Kyle Bonagura included Alabama as the No. 12 seed.
Alabama’s playoff odds rose slightly from 52.2% to 55.5% after Saturday’s games. Here are ESPN’s updated playoff chances:
– Oregon: 95.6%
– Miami: 92.8%
– Georgia: 92.3%
– Ohio State: 91.3%
– Indiana: 86.6%
– Texas: 77.9%
– Tennessee: 73.9%
– Penn State: 73.7%
– Boise State: 70.5%
– BYU: 57.9%
– Notre Dame: 57.8%
– Alabama: 55.5%
– SMU: 47.2%
– Ole Miss: 29.2%
Another potential bid-stealer for Alabama is Texas A&M. The Aggies have a 19.1% playoff chance and could reach the SEC championship if they defeat Auburn and Texas, provided Alabama beats LSU and Georgia beats Tennessee. An Aggies win over Georgia in Atlanta might steal a bid if Georgia earns an at-large spot, and a 10-3 Texas A&M could still be considered for the playoff if they narrowly lose the SEC title game.
For Alabama to solidify its position, it must first win its remaining four games, starting with LSU. Additional help could come if Notre Dame, Miami, Indiana, Penn State, and Tennessee all take losses, which would boost Alabama’s playoff standing.
Additional updates on Alabama’s standing:
– Their national title odds remain at +1800 on BetMGM, behind Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon, Texas, and Miami, and tied with Tennessee.
– Alabama’s odds to win the SEC lengthened from +2000 to +3000, placing them behind multiple teams, including Georgia, Texas, Texas A&M, and Tennessee.
– Alabama held the No. 3 spot in ESPN’s FPI rankings and rose from No. 11 to No. 8 in efficiency metrics, reflecting an 11th-ranked offense and 9th-ranked defense.
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