Following the Braves’ unexpected elimination from the postseason after being swept by the Padres in the Wild Card Series, Atlanta is now focused on the upcoming offseason.
A major topic for the team this winter will be the future of Max Fried, a long-time starter who has been a key part of the rotation for the last five years and is set to hit free agency in November. The 30-year-old left-hander is expected to be one of the top starting pitching options available, alongside former NL Cy Young winners Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell. Since the beginning of the 2020 season, Fried has made 112 starts, posting an impressive 2.81 ERA (151 ERA+) and a 3.11 FIP over 659 innings. This level of run prevention is likely to command a substantial contract in free agency, even with a relatively average 23.6% strikeout rate during that time.
However, it remains uncertain how active the Braves will be in pursuing Fried’s services for 2025 and beyond. While he is a crucial member of the team and played a significant role in their 2021 World Series win, similar statements could have been made about Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson when they entered free agency. Both players eventually signed lucrative contracts with other teams, yet the Braves managed to remain competitive without them. As noted by David O’Brien of The Athletic, the Braves might take a similar approach with Fried. With Spencer Strider expected to return to the rotation early next year, he would create a formidable front-line pairing with likely NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale.
This powerful duo could allow the Braves to be comfortable letting Fried go, and O’Brien mentions that the team’s offseason plans might only involve adding a veteran depth starter to complement Strider, Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, and Spencer Schwellenbach. While this pursuit appears likely, O’Brien also points out that the Braves could rely on their deep pool of internal starting options, including Hurston Waldrep, Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Ian Anderson.
Both Elder and Anderson have previously found success in the majors, while the Braves turned to Smith-Shawver for Game 1 against the Padres, and Waldrep entered 2024 as a consensus top-50 prospect. It’s possible that one or more of these pitchers could become effective rotation pieces next year, although they collectively posted a 7.23 ERA in 61 innings in the majors this season. Moreover, only Elder has significant recent experience in the big leagues, as Waldrep and Smith-Shawver have only made nine total MLB appearances combined, and Anderson last pitched in 2022.
Given the uncertainty surrounding these young arms, adding a proven starter to the rotation should be a priority for the Braves, even if they don’t actively pursue a reunion with Fried. If the team opts to avoid the top of the market, several intriguing mid-rotation options like Michael Wacha, Andrew Heaney, and Luis Severino could be available. Additionally, a back-end starter like Michael Lorenzen or Martin Perez could provide stability in the fifth rotation spot while allowing one of the internal pitchers a chance to earn a spot.
Even if the Braves look for a veteran innings-eater, O’Brien notes that re-signing Charlie Morton for that role seems unlikely. The organization believes that the soon-to-be 41-year-old veteran may choose to retire rather than continue pitching in 2025, despite his average 4.19 ERA over 30 starts this year. Morton, a Florida native, has preferred to pitch close to home in recent years, having spent two seasons with the Rays from 2019-20 before returning to Atlanta for the past four seasons. Therefore, it wouldn’t be surprising if he decided to retire and spend more time with his family, although Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Morton has not yet made any definitive statements about his future.
Leave a Reply