Depending on the St. Louis Cardinals’ payroll strategy and which veterans they’re open to trading, moving Miles Mikolas might not be strictly necessary, despite his recent struggles.
Before you get frustrated, hear me out. I’m not claiming Mikolas is a hidden gem poised for a comeback. He’s struggled, plain and simple. If the Cardinals were aiming to contend in 2025, I wouldn’t advocate for him to stay. However, considering the number of other veterans the Cardinals may be offloading this offseason, holding onto Mikolas starts to make more sense.
Let’s examine the Cardinals’ rotation. If they choose to pay the $1 million buyouts for Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, allowing them to enter free agency, they would be left with Sonny Gray, Andre Pallante, Erick Fedde, Michael McGreevy, and either Steven Matz or Mikolas. Prospects like Quinn Mathews, Sem Robberse, Matthew Liberatore, and Gordon Graceffo could compete for spots as well, but it’s not essential for them to start in the rotation. It might be better for their development if they’re not forced in prematurely.
If the Cardinals trade Gray or Matz, both of whom would be easier to move than Mikolas, they’d have perhaps only two or three reliable starting options for Opening Day. There’s also the chance they part with Fedde, given his trade value. For that reason, I’d prioritize trading Matz or Fedde before considering Mikolas. Fedde, who will soon hit free agency, could bring a decent return, while Matz has a smaller salary and bullpen flexibility. If the Cardinals were to move Mikolas, they’d likely need to cover a lot of his salary and receive little in return, unlike with Matz or Fedde.
Then there’s Gray. The Cardinals don’t “need” to trade him unless he asks to be moved, especially given his no-trade clause. If he’s open to staying, they could test his market and make a decision from there. The same goes for Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado. Contreras might fetch a valuable return, but if the offers aren’t appealing or if they see him as a core player beyond 2025, they could keep him. Arenado’s market return may be modest, but it would still bring more than what an aging Arenado could contribute.
In short, none of these players—Mikolas, Matz, Gray, Contreras, or Arenado—absolutely “need” to be traded. The Cardinals may choose to part with several of them, but none seem like must-trades this offseason.
However, there are two Cardinals who, I believe, should be prioritized for trade: Ryan Helsley and Erick Fedde. Helsley is a free agent after 2025 and could bring back significant value, especially since he’s unlikely to be essential if the Cardinals aren’t contending. Fedde, who has been productive, is on a $7.5 million contract for 2025 and should generate interest in the pitching market, likely providing a beneficial return to strengthen their farm system.
Of course, much depends on the Cardinals’ 2025 payroll plan. If they need significant payroll cuts due to investments in player development and uncertainties around TV revenue, we may see many familiar names on the move. But unless they face a huge reduction in payroll, it’s possible some of these veterans stick around.
Ultimately, the Cardinals’ direction will become clearer as the offseason unfolds, with the market shaping much of what’s to come. For now, it’s too early to call anyone outside Helsley and Fedde as must-trades this offseason.
Leave a Reply